In December 2025, data posted on X by Ash (real name: Ash Liew), an analyst at Memento Research, sent shockwaves through the industry.
Tracking 118 TGEs, the data showed that 100 tokens were trading below their listing price, and 84.7% were below their fully diluted valuation (FDV) at listing. The median decline was 71% by FDV and 67% by market capitalization. Ash summarized it bluntly: "2025's token launches were, on the whole, a disaster."
A separate study surfaced the same paradox.
Solus Group analyzed 113 token generation events (TGEs) and found that projects whose post-listing price fell below their IDO price averaged $1.36 million in revenue, while projects whose post-listing price rose above their IDO price (the pre-listing price set through an exchange-led, order-book-exchange process...
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