How a Hairdryer Scandal Exposed the Weak Link in Prediction Markets and Oracles
In April 2026, a bizarre incident unfolded on Polymarket's market for Paris's daily high temperature. A $119 bet turned into roughly $21,000 in payout — and the same thing happened twice within two weeks. At the center of it all was a startling theory: that the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport had been warmed up with a hair dryer. French authorities opened an investigation, and media outlets around the world quickly dubbed it the "hair dryer scandal." Using this incident as a starting point, this article walks through what prediction markets actually are, how Polymarket works, and what the real problem exposed by this case turns out to be.
What Exactly Is a Prediction Market?
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